* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 42 49 59 66 76 81 84 84 83 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 37 42 49 59 66 76 81 84 84 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 43 50 57 66 74 81 82 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 5 5 14 8 6 3 7 17 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 -3 -1 -2 0 -5 -2 -4 -2 7 7 SHEAR DIR 295 270 264 220 240 183 226 188 180 207 240 243 223 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.8 25.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 142 145 146 141 135 130 125 123 126 114 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 130 131 130 122 115 113 111 112 115 104 95 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 39 35 35 37 40 43 48 55 59 59 58 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 9 10 11 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -57 -63 -76 -74 -84 -94 -78 -61 -50 -33 -21 -5 200 MB DIV 31 25 15 11 15 3 2 11 21 23 5 29 19 700-850 TADV 15 13 16 13 17 5 6 -10 -7 -2 5 4 10 LAND (KM) 1772 1670 1578 1521 1477 1507 1634 1551 1496 1516 1671 1919 1880 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.9 25.5 26.3 27.0 28.7 30.4 32.1 33.3 33.9 34.4 35.3 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 49.8 51.2 52.5 53.7 54.8 56.2 56.5 55.0 51.4 46.9 41.7 35.9 30.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 11 9 9 13 17 21 23 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 21 28 22 22 23 18 15 14 12 8 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 17. 24. 34. 41. 51. 56. 59. 59. 58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/14/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)