* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 34 42 51 61 70 76 81 84 85 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 34 42 51 61 70 76 81 84 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 34 41 48 56 65 72 77 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 4 6 4 4 10 4 5 6 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -5 0 -1 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 356 347 346 341 327 288 168 235 281 249 259 256 247 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.0 25.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 133 136 138 143 139 132 128 122 116 115 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 124 126 126 128 121 113 109 105 102 102 97 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 39 39 40 39 37 39 40 44 51 51 57 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 10 10 10 14 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -24 -40 -55 -64 -81 -90 -98 -75 -61 -37 -11 20 200 MB DIV -10 -9 9 19 26 9 2 -12 12 13 25 17 35 700-850 TADV 14 14 14 12 8 13 10 9 6 -5 10 16 32 LAND (KM) 2143 2050 1911 1793 1686 1589 1639 1711 1563 1427 1311 1310 1495 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.7 25.3 27.0 28.9 30.7 32.4 33.9 35.4 36.8 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.8 48.3 49.8 51.2 53.4 54.5 54.6 53.7 51.7 48.6 44.5 39.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 14 12 9 9 10 13 16 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 20 32 31 15 16 11 14 5 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 17. 26. 36. 45. 51. 56. 59. 60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/13/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)