* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 33 40 49 58 66 73 76 81 81 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 33 40 49 58 66 73 76 81 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 33 39 46 55 64 71 73 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 5 4 5 2 6 7 6 12 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 -5 -2 -5 -3 -1 -4 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 324 1 357 1 337 329 289 178 233 286 299 292 281 SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.4 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.1 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 131 133 136 141 143 135 129 123 117 117 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 122 124 125 128 127 117 111 106 102 103 106 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 41 40 40 41 40 36 42 43 49 55 61 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -14 -25 -42 -55 -71 -88 -95 -89 -59 -45 -44 -34 200 MB DIV -9 -17 -11 11 26 17 6 16 0 -4 11 1 1 700-850 TADV 15 13 11 13 13 5 11 4 9 -3 8 -1 6 LAND (KM) 2183 2164 2087 1948 1815 1645 1602 1712 1577 1433 1305 1352 1561 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.6 26.1 27.9 30.0 32.0 33.8 35.2 35.8 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 44.9 46.4 48.0 49.5 52.1 54.0 54.7 54.5 52.8 49.9 45.9 41.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 12 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 4 10 9 18 30 21 15 12 13 4 2 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 15. 24. 33. 41. 48. 51. 56. 56. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/13/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)