* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 45 53 61 68 74 79 78 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 45 53 61 68 74 79 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 41 49 58 68 75 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 8 8 2 5 6 9 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 1 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -5 -6 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 305 320 339 358 3 356 360 47 230 243 247 267 288 SST (C) 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 121 124 127 131 133 137 143 139 131 127 121 116 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 120 123 124 125 129 122 112 108 104 101 103 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 6 4 700-500 MB RH 42 39 40 40 42 39 39 42 45 50 51 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 9 0 -11 -27 -42 -72 -94 -95 -101 -75 -53 -40 -32 200 MB DIV -10 -17 -23 -12 14 16 9 5 -2 -1 16 24 -1 700-850 TADV 18 18 14 12 11 11 8 3 9 1 4 9 14 LAND (KM) 2257 2216 2190 2128 1985 1755 1630 1661 1669 1512 1382 1311 1398 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.2 25.4 27.0 29.0 31.1 32.9 34.3 35.4 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.8 44.4 46.0 47.6 50.5 52.9 54.3 54.6 53.7 51.7 48.6 44.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 10 10 12 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 7 22 26 16 20 18 8 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 12. 20. 28. 36. 43. 49. 54. 53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/13/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)