* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 35 41 50 56 61 65 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 35 41 50 56 61 65 67 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 37 44 51 59 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 6 7 9 8 7 1 6 8 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 2 1 0 -3 -4 -1 0 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 281 305 324 342 354 350 348 339 122 293 304 298 293 SST (C) 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 121 124 127 130 134 139 141 135 130 125 119 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 117 119 121 124 127 125 117 110 107 104 102 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 10 11 10 10 7 6 700-500 MB RH 44 43 42 43 42 42 40 41 42 50 55 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 5 -2 -13 -28 -55 -81 -95 -94 -94 -67 -27 -15 200 MB DIV -12 -9 -13 -19 -6 17 15 15 17 -11 23 34 25 700-850 TADV 21 19 20 15 13 14 8 8 7 14 4 16 20 LAND (KM) 2289 2287 2249 2221 2179 1909 1721 1648 1711 1597 1442 1291 1220 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.8 26.2 27.9 29.9 31.7 33.4 35.1 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 39.1 40.8 42.4 44.0 45.5 48.6 51.3 53.4 54.6 54.9 54.2 52.1 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 10 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 5 27 17 18 20 15 6 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 16. 25. 31. 36. 40. 42. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/13/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)