* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 33 40 47 52 57 61 64 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 33 40 47 52 57 61 64 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 41 48 55 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 9 8 8 7 8 8 12 12 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 1 2 2 1 0 -4 -4 -5 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 265 278 299 319 347 9 348 318 311 292 306 320 346 SST (C) 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 118 121 124 127 132 137 140 136 131 127 123 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 113 115 117 119 123 124 124 118 111 107 106 105 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 43 43 42 39 43 42 44 47 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 36 15 -3 -10 -22 -46 -77 -90 -96 -102 -87 -86 -43 200 MB DIV -9 -15 -4 -10 -17 7 15 15 7 -6 5 18 42 700-850 TADV 19 21 17 17 15 12 12 13 7 7 2 -2 3 LAND (KM) 2094 2272 2327 2285 2258 2037 1809 1698 1726 1747 1636 1541 1513 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.6 25.8 27.3 29.1 30.6 31.9 32.9 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 39.0 40.7 42.4 44.0 47.2 50.1 52.3 53.5 53.8 53.1 51.3 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 16 15 15 13 11 9 7 8 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 4 14 17 29 16 16 13 15 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/12/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)