* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/12/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 45 52 55 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 45 52 55 58 61 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 49 55 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 9 9 8 5 6 13 14 17 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 1 1 0 0 -2 -5 -6 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 275 276 285 303 317 357 336 312 299 309 322 324 321 SST (C) 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 113 116 119 122 125 130 134 137 135 130 125 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 114 116 118 120 123 122 118 111 107 104 103 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 6 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 42 43 42 42 42 47 43 52 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 59 35 10 -5 -13 -38 -64 -87 -95 -99 -86 -45 -16 200 MB DIV -19 -9 -11 -5 -10 -7 12 14 9 9 2 40 41 700-850 TADV 12 19 26 14 16 13 13 5 10 2 10 -3 9 LAND (KM) 1922 2103 2285 2357 2320 2183 1934 1802 1801 1764 1591 1469 1420 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.5 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.6 25.7 27.2 29.0 30.8 32.4 33.7 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 35.5 37.3 39.1 40.8 42.5 45.7 48.7 51.0 52.4 52.7 52.0 49.9 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 17 16 15 14 11 10 9 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 7 11 28 16 17 14 12 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 27. 30. 33. 36. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/12/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/12/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)