* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 32 38 45 50 54 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 32 38 45 50 54 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 42 50 59 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 11 12 12 9 5 6 12 15 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 7 7 5 2 1 0 0 -7 -7 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 3 332 278 274 276 306 336 357 296 275 236 256 282 SST (C) 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.7 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 111 115 118 123 129 133 138 137 132 127 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 108 108 111 113 115 119 122 123 119 114 107 102 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 49 48 43 41 39 36 38 42 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 89 71 46 22 6 -32 -44 -63 -84 -93 -96 -91 -72 200 MB DIV -3 -12 -10 -14 -11 0 -15 10 19 5 4 -1 2 700-850 TADV 8 12 8 22 26 17 11 8 7 7 3 8 -2 LAND (KM) 1293 1497 1709 1919 2126 2480 2321 2044 1836 1773 1767 1587 1467 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.1 24.4 25.3 26.1 27.2 28.7 30.5 32.2 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 31.4 33.5 35.6 37.6 41.1 44.5 47.7 50.6 52.5 53.5 53.6 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 23 22 22 21 19 16 15 15 12 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 7 5 14 16 20 19 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 34. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/11/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)