* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 34 40 44 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 34 40 44 48 49 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 9 13 11 13 10 8 14 20 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 13 8 6 5 3 3 1 -2 -7 -7 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 338 344 286 268 282 299 328 338 299 259 255 283 319 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.7 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 110 111 114 120 125 129 132 134 131 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 107 108 109 113 115 118 118 117 112 107 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 54 52 48 47 40 39 36 36 36 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 99 79 63 36 14 -17 -41 -57 -73 -89 -96 -93 -86 200 MB DIV 11 5 -7 -12 -16 -15 -8 -1 9 2 3 22 -17 700-850 TADV 2 12 16 15 23 26 13 10 9 9 8 0 8 LAND (KM) 1098 1300 1514 1724 1931 2302 2467 2241 2020 1904 1922 1789 1714 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 20.0 21.0 21.9 22.7 24.1 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.8 29.3 30.7 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 27.3 29.5 31.6 33.7 35.7 39.3 42.5 45.5 48.2 50.2 51.1 50.8 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 22 21 19 17 15 14 11 10 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 3 14 16 17 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 19. 23. 24. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/11/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)