* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 37 39 40 38 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 37 39 40 38 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 37 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 4 11 15 16 18 15 15 29 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 12 10 6 5 4 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 23 358 348 300 272 303 323 346 337 293 290 317 337 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.3 26.1 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 111 110 111 117 122 125 128 129 128 128 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 109 108 108 111 112 114 113 112 108 108 108 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 56 55 50 46 43 40 38 38 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 109 95 72 55 28 -6 -46 -61 -75 -98 -117 -127 -139 200 MB DIV 5 17 11 -10 -16 -7 2 -10 6 16 -4 9 -16 700-850 TADV -3 1 9 14 22 25 23 12 13 14 12 6 4 LAND (KM) 826 1029 1230 1451 1678 2077 2409 2440 2277 2116 1964 1887 1906 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.2 23.9 25.2 26.2 27.1 28.2 29.5 30.4 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 24.5 26.7 28.8 31.0 33.2 37.1 40.3 43.3 45.6 47.4 47.9 47.0 45.5 STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 23 23 22 18 15 13 10 8 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 4 6 11 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 13. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/11/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED