* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 28 30 33 36 39 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 28 30 33 36 39 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 4 4 16 14 20 18 13 16 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 12 13 9 3 5 2 0 1 -5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 348 337 337 309 278 287 309 331 349 318 273 301 316 SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.8 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 113 110 110 115 121 125 129 131 133 130 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 112 108 107 110 113 115 117 116 114 109 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 55 58 57 56 58 52 47 44 42 40 39 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 113 105 94 72 47 7 -24 -49 -59 -81 -96 -99 -112 200 MB DIV -9 0 7 -2 -10 -15 -14 -19 -5 11 0 0 -4 700-850 TADV -9 -2 3 14 17 22 28 15 13 11 7 10 2 LAND (KM) 659 896 1086 1300 1523 1952 2313 2472 2244 2038 1955 1987 1938 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 23.0 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.6 27.8 28.8 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 23.0 25.2 27.3 29.5 31.7 35.9 39.4 42.6 45.5 48.0 49.6 49.9 49.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 23 23 23 22 19 16 15 13 10 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 6 5 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/11/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED