* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 43 47 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 43 47 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 39 45 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 4 5 13 14 16 16 7 11 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 13 13 11 5 3 2 0 0 -3 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 41 329 338 323 288 272 295 323 354 336 280 270 306 SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.1 25.5 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 114 112 110 113 119 124 128 132 135 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 116 114 111 108 108 113 115 118 120 119 116 112 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 59 58 55 52 48 45 40 39 38 39 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 123 114 105 93 72 28 0 -33 -47 -58 -83 -89 -89 200 MB DIV 25 1 6 4 -5 -11 -14 -2 -5 0 0 -2 26 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -3 7 16 16 25 9 10 8 9 7 3 LAND (KM) 496 742 951 1160 1382 1822 2209 2434 2260 2002 1829 1777 1822 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.6 22.2 23.5 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.4 27.5 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 21.6 23.7 25.8 28.1 30.3 34.6 38.4 41.8 45.0 47.9 50.2 51.5 51.7 STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 23 23 22 20 17 15 14 12 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 12 3 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 22. 25. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/10/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED