* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 43 47 50 53 57 59 64 65 66 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 43 47 50 53 57 59 64 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 47 50 52 56 61 69 77 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 4 5 8 10 11 8 5 3 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 7 10 11 7 4 0 0 0 0 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 70 61 20 337 335 277 284 286 319 24 289 235 281 SST (C) 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 120 117 115 113 110 115 120 126 130 134 137 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 120 116 114 111 107 110 113 118 121 123 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 58 55 53 49 42 40 35 39 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 12 11 10 11 11 10 9 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 128 130 124 114 107 71 43 13 -2 -13 -29 -46 -56 200 MB DIV 25 27 9 9 3 -10 -8 -1 -17 -6 1 4 20 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 -3 4 20 14 12 6 5 4 2 4 LAND (KM) 357 578 799 1031 1218 1621 2029 2363 2202 2052 1779 1575 1442 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.1 20.6 21.7 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.8 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 20.6 22.5 24.4 26.5 28.5 32.6 36.6 40.1 43.5 46.5 49.4 51.7 53.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 21 21 21 20 18 16 15 14 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 8 4 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 17. 20. 23. 27. 29. 34. 35. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/10/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED