* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/10/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 48 51 54 58 62 66 68 70 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 48 51 54 58 62 66 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 55 59 64 71 80 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 4 2 3 4 10 8 12 4 1 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 10 10 10 3 0 -2 0 3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 68 57 40 308 335 270 252 256 301 351 325 279 266 SST (C) 27.5 26.8 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.3 25.5 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 125 118 117 115 111 113 118 123 128 131 133 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 126 118 116 113 109 109 113 117 121 123 124 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 58 54 55 56 54 50 46 41 40 43 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 145 127 126 124 114 99 64 47 26 23 13 0 -7 200 MB DIV 0 17 24 14 9 -7 -9 -16 -3 -15 -4 0 29 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -10 -6 0 6 8 19 4 8 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 159 378 597 828 1055 1455 1890 2289 2128 1971 1747 1487 1284 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.7 20.7 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 18.8 20.7 22.6 24.7 26.7 30.9 35.2 39.1 42.7 46.1 49.1 51.9 54.0 STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 20 21 21 21 20 17 16 15 13 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 24 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 28. 32. 36. 38. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/10/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/10/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED