* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 08/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 46 50 54 58 64 67 71 74 V (KT) LAND 25 31 35 39 42 49 53 57 61 67 69 74 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 30 33 36 40 46 50 54 58 63 70 78 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 5 0 3 2 10 7 5 2 4 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 11 12 10 10 2 1 0 4 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 66 64 45 105 196 181 231 267 224 56 149 15 192 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.8 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 124 118 116 113 112 115 121 126 130 132 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 125 118 116 111 109 111 115 119 122 122 124 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 55 56 55 53 48 42 42 34 37 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 17 16 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 153 152 128 125 128 121 90 61 44 31 22 16 1 200 MB DIV 23 19 32 29 21 2 -21 -16 -3 0 10 -9 28 700-850 TADV -11 -6 -5 -5 0 1 13 8 14 -1 0 2 2 LAND (KM) -12 192 405 628 852 1285 1700 2107 2200 2031 1883 1664 1455 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.9 20.0 20.8 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.8 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 17.1 19.0 20.9 22.9 24.9 29.1 33.3 37.3 41.0 44.4 47.4 50.2 52.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 21 20 19 16 15 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 25. 29. 33. 39. 42. 46. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 08/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 08/10/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED