* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932012 05/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 47 52 52 54 54 51 48 43 39 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 47 52 52 54 54 51 48 43 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 42 46 50 55 55 52 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 33 35 30 25 23 20 28 33 41 41 37 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 2 0 -2 -2 -5 -8 -6 -13 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 238 231 234 238 226 244 260 255 253 260 280 294 325 SST (C) 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.3 23.8 23.7 24.6 22.9 20.8 19.7 18.3 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 99 98 99 98 96 92 93 103 96 87 84 79 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 83 82 81 78 79 92 88 82 79 75 74 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.2 -57.0 -57.0 -56.5 -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 -55.3 -56.5 -57.9 -58.6 -59.8 TH_E DEV (C) 1 3 4 2 1 6 3 6 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 44 45 44 47 49 55 56 63 65 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 32 30 34 45 67 61 69 70 48 17 -13 -36 200 MB DIV 52 22 37 31 46 38 -5 29 47 45 11 12 1 700-850 TADV -2 0 -9 -2 1 0 -3 -2 -5 20 14 27 28 LAND (KM) 168 160 151 130 108 45 35 133 308 655 716 766 850 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 32.7 32.7 32.8 32.9 32.9 32.8 33.0 34.4 36.5 38.5 39.8 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.4 77.5 77.9 78.2 79.0 79.2 77.2 72.8 66.8 60.1 53.2 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 3 2 4 14 23 27 28 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 7. 9. 10. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -7. -12. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 22. 24. 24. 21. 18. 13. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932012 INVEST 05/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932012 INVEST 05/19/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932012 INVEST 05/19/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)