* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 10/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 32 33 30 29 27 27 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 30 27 27 27 29 30 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 29 25 26 27 30 30 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 23 29 29 28 22 18 22 19 24 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 1 1 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 240 247 238 226 228 227 226 219 194 190 170 160 177 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 162 159 159 157 160 168 171 171 168 167 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 152 148 147 145 150 161 171 167 159 154 150 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 87 86 87 86 85 82 77 74 73 71 73 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 6 6 5 5 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 91 93 93 84 68 63 64 69 78 88 104 106 128 200 MB DIV 82 78 91 93 99 92 89 74 89 111 100 120 123 700-850 TADV 3 1 6 11 1 1 -2 0 4 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) -63 -153 -99 -38 -11 22 -30 -163 -81 25 133 187 200 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.2 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.6 90.5 91.3 92.0 93.4 94.9 96.8 98.9 100.9 102.6 103.8 104.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 7 7 8 10 10 9 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 82 45 29 43 50 13 39 61 60 55 56 53 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 5. 4. 2. 2. 5. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 10/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 10/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 10/17/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED