* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 43 43 41 41 41 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 43 43 41 33 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 40 43 35 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 17 19 20 23 15 14 22 27 33 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -4 -1 -3 -4 -5 -1 -1 3 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 27 25 9 2 8 18 358 325 292 299 279 273 258 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 171 171 172 164 161 155 154 153 155 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 161 159 157 155 155 146 140 132 128 127 130 134 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 6 8 5 8 5 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 64 67 62 61 62 67 70 66 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -67 -76 -46 -33 -59 -47 -86 -72 -73 -59 -53 -22 200 MB DIV 39 31 6 15 18 -11 9 -8 0 2 12 -9 5 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -4 -7 -6 -5 -5 6 4 2 0 -5 LAND (KM) 40 114 199 293 390 327 279 267 113 23 -33 -14 -24 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.6 27.3 28.5 29.5 30.1 29.9 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.3 84.3 85.3 86.3 88.7 91.1 93.1 94.2 94.2 93.3 91.8 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 6 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 59 41 32 45 94 136 64 48 35 9 37 33 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 18. 18. 16. 16. 16. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/13/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/13/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)