* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL922013 09/10/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 49 51 54 58 64 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 49 51 54 58 64 67 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 43 49 57 63 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 17 16 17 17 16 17 14 8 5 10 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 0 -2 1 -5 -7 -1 0 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 208 211 213 203 212 233 255 277 296 302 177 256 241 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 148 143 137 132 131 131 131 127 124 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 131 126 120 112 106 105 106 108 109 109 91 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -55.1 -55.8 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 7 4 700-500 MB RH 58 54 52 47 43 42 41 45 48 55 57 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 7 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -38 -38 -43 -63 -67 -83 -59 -42 -7 7 39 74 200 MB DIV 36 17 30 20 5 1 -23 8 -11 35 50 56 56 700-850 TADV 1 3 8 7 4 4 -3 0 1 9 5 13 31 LAND (KM) 956 1046 1137 1174 1120 1055 1042 1034 1065 1090 1008 771 471 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.1 29.0 29.9 30.7 31.8 32.3 32.5 32.6 33.1 34.6 37.3 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.3 65.2 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.3 65.3 64.9 64.4 63.2 61.4 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 7 4 2 1 2 6 12 19 23 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 31 22 15 13 14 15 16 18 14 13 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 24. 26. 29. 33. 39. 42. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/10/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)