* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL922013 09/09/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 42 47 47 50 54 61 62 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 42 47 47 50 54 61 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 39 44 50 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 19 19 20 21 21 19 14 6 17 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 3 1 -2 -2 -2 -4 3 6 8 SHEAR DIR 229 213 225 211 205 229 230 258 266 277 238 210 207 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.2 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 151 148 139 134 130 130 130 126 120 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 134 131 126 116 109 105 106 108 108 107 76 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 5 2 700-500 MB RH 64 60 57 54 49 42 44 44 47 51 56 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 11 11 9 9 7 6 8 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 -34 -31 -38 -74 -84 -75 -55 -16 51 33 87 200 MB DIV 76 40 23 37 20 1 -1 -3 16 34 56 47 93 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 6 3 5 1 5 10 20 33 24 LAND (KM) 854 942 1032 1122 1113 1010 951 932 947 933 825 592 242 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.4 28.2 29.1 30.0 31.5 32.6 33.1 33.7 34.5 36.3 39.5 44.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 65.9 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.2 66.2 65.8 64.9 63.1 60.8 57.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 7 4 3 4 9 15 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 41 34 32 31 26 14 19 27 30 28 19 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 22. 22. 25. 29. 36. 37. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED