* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL922013 09/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 38 37 36 35 37 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 38 37 36 35 37 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 30 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 27 28 31 32 33 27 25 21 18 32 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 3 1 -3 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 241 241 236 222 220 215 210 191 193 180 194 205 209 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.2 27.5 26.4 25.6 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 157 157 155 151 143 139 129 119 113 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 136 134 133 132 129 122 117 108 102 99 75 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -55.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 7 9 4 1 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 61 58 51 45 47 45 51 57 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -1 -6 6 7 -14 -41 -42 -63 -51 5 49 116 200 MB DIV 63 44 55 62 11 21 -5 10 -6 28 47 51 49 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 0 2 6 11 3 2 0 -15 -20 LAND (KM) 684 759 834 896 960 934 766 564 356 162 134 295 226 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.4 27.0 27.6 28.2 29.2 30.2 31.3 32.6 34.1 35.9 38.2 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.2 68.0 68.1 68.2 69.1 70.4 72.1 73.7 74.9 74.4 71.4 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 13 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 45 39 33 28 29 24 24 31 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -4. -9. -12. -13. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 12. 14. 12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 GABRIELLE 09/09/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED