* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 08/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 42 47 48 49 48 48 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 42 47 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 32 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 9 9 11 12 11 13 13 12 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 304 299 244 247 230 235 218 236 219 224 199 230 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 158 158 157 157 156 154 153 155 156 156 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 141 140 140 139 137 137 137 138 140 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 13 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 64 61 57 57 56 54 53 54 56 57 59 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 11 9 9 7 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 4 2 1 14 4 34 27 19 13 -20 -17 200 MB DIV 49 36 46 40 42 41 26 21 15 24 5 14 0 700-850 TADV -3 -1 4 5 -1 7 1 6 -3 2 -5 2 -2 LAND (KM) 222 242 267 267 235 179 115 23 -32 -155 -284 -415 -393 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.8 22.3 23.1 24.2 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.2 93.7 94.2 94.6 95.4 96.1 97.0 98.1 99.4 100.6 101.9 103.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 27 27 27 31 36 23 48 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 17. 22. 23. 24. 23. 23. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/17/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/17/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/17/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)