* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 08/15/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 37 44 50 52 55 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 31 38 45 51 53 46 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 30 34 38 44 48 43 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 10 13 3 12 26 30 28 26 24 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 1 -1 -3 -2 0 -4 -1 -8 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 301 327 322 327 348 234 267 226 240 232 250 247 292 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 28.3 26.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 155 155 160 169 171 171 171 141 115 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 145 143 142 144 151 150 150 148 119 98 89 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 9 11 9 10 8 10 6 11 3 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 67 64 55 49 45 42 41 36 36 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -18 -3 -1 -11 9 -13 0 -18 -43 -96 -83 -64 200 MB DIV 20 25 31 38 20 32 25 27 -7 14 -4 -6 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 0 0 3 1 2 2 2 3 2 LAND (KM) -6 -100 -116 -23 69 264 452 305 140 -33 -173 -346 -521 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.6 23.1 24.8 26.5 28.0 29.8 31.7 33.5 35.3 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.4 89.2 89.9 90.5 91.5 91.9 91.8 91.5 91.2 91.1 90.5 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 83 0 28 28 21 40 49 49 41 36 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 19. 25. 27. 30. 30. 31. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/15/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/15/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/15/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED