* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 08/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 48 55 59 61 58 55 52 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 32 39 46 50 52 38 30 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 32 38 43 50 55 41 31 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 9 10 13 10 23 41 43 42 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 0 -3 -1 0 -3 0 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 241 264 280 293 288 341 256 251 229 237 239 258 258 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.5 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.0 27.4 25.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 156 156 161 172 172 168 152 130 112 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 150 149 147 148 156 154 147 130 111 97 87 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 10 9 10 8 10 4 8 3 9 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 66 66 64 56 57 54 57 58 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 22 -1 -22 -12 -23 -4 -12 10 -20 -31 -68 -98 200 MB DIV 43 45 21 22 50 31 46 36 53 -2 24 2 -11 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 2 4 1 2 11 12 18 3 6 6 LAND (KM) 211 187 94 5 -53 207 434 191 44 -100 -320 -581 -686 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 44 54 62 30 28 39 94 58 32 14 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -2. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 25. 29. 31. 28. 25. 22. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/15/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/15/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/15/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED