* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 08/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 49 56 61 66 64 63 60 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 34 29 40 45 50 43 35 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 41 35 30 37 44 51 56 39 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 6 7 5 8 5 19 24 38 40 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -4 0 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 263 236 270 278 275 284 293 256 224 236 232 251 288 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 30.0 30.1 30.2 29.5 25.8 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 155 153 155 158 170 172 171 162 115 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 146 145 145 143 145 154 154 151 142 104 86 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 9 10 10 10 8 9 4 8 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 70 67 70 63 51 48 40 41 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 31 34 5 -9 1 12 -3 30 -29 -9 -79 -54 200 MB DIV 27 34 43 9 28 32 43 48 59 6 16 -15 13 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 1 0 2 0 5 0 8 14 0 13 LAND (KM) 214 220 118 31 -55 0 192 424 224 -2 -69 -406 -891 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 13 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 46 49 54 50 80 28 35 79 61 17 22 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 4. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 26. 31. 36. 34. 33. 30. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/14/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/14/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/14/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED