* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 08/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 52 62 72 77 77 71 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 32 33 43 53 58 58 52 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 31 28 36 43 50 56 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 8 7 7 9 6 10 17 18 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -3 4 -3 1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 322 268 243 263 277 239 281 235 254 227 239 211 221 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 159 159 155 155 154 155 158 164 168 169 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 149 152 151 146 143 140 137 139 145 148 147 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 11 8 11 10 12 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 73 70 68 69 62 50 44 40 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 10 10 13 18 20 19 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 20 27 21 -4 -17 -8 19 45 56 16 -10 -45 200 MB DIV 39 39 41 46 33 35 24 58 31 5 2 10 -7 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 4 2 4 -2 4 -1 11 4 7 7 LAND (KM) 207 209 256 182 69 -122 5 144 244 371 476 344 217 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.3 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.9 25.0 26.5 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 83.8 84.8 85.8 86.8 88.6 90.1 91.2 91.8 92.1 92.2 92.7 93.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 5 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 43 53 63 63 0 3 28 35 43 45 38 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 9. 10. 9. 3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 27. 37. 47. 52. 52. 46. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/14/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/14/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/14/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED