* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922013 08/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 57 64 68 71 72 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 30 28 38 42 45 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 30 27 27 36 44 51 56 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 0 2 1 9 4 12 6 15 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 1 0 -2 -1 -5 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 133 153 159 326 208 100 151 144 175 240 205 270 255 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 154 155 157 155 154 153 153 157 160 161 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 145 148 149 150 146 142 139 138 141 144 144 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 8 11 9 12 10 12 10 13 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 72 73 70 69 64 61 51 51 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 46 34 26 29 12 -2 14 40 0 0 -21 -16 200 MB DIV 90 62 49 46 50 47 41 33 20 -4 13 11 23 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 3 0 2 0 1 -2 6 -3 7 LAND (KM) 234 201 167 190 236 14 -154 -7 127 237 352 247 153 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.4 82.4 83.4 84.4 85.4 87.4 89.1 90.4 91.6 92.6 93.8 95.0 96.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 11 11 10 10 8 6 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 36 41 48 28 0 20 23 26 36 36 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 37. 44. 48. 51. 52. 51. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/14/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/14/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/14/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)