* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 09/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 41 52 61 66 72 77 83 85 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 41 52 61 66 72 77 83 85 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 26 32 39 46 52 58 64 71 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 7 9 11 9 19 19 23 17 19 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -6 -6 -5 -5 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 43 50 53 19 346 329 310 301 304 290 294 278 279 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 161 163 161 159 157 155 159 162 168 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 156 158 160 157 155 152 150 153 156 160 156 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 59 56 53 50 51 51 51 50 49 47 53 52 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 -10 -16 -7 2 0 3 8 14 11 13 -8 200 MB DIV 17 29 17 9 1 21 13 5 -11 -9 3 7 -5 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -3 -8 0 1 -3 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 469 460 477 508 399 217 171 155 79 56 4 99 254 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 59.9 60.9 62.0 63.1 65.4 67.6 69.9 72.1 74.4 76.7 78.9 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 72 79 92 95 82 94 87 69 104 85 110 119 122 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 19. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 21. 32. 41. 46. 52. 57. 63. 65. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 09/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 09/17/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)