* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 57 67 77 84 89 94 97 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 57 67 77 84 89 89 92 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 44 57 74 90 100 100 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 16 16 14 9 4 11 4 8 9 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -1 0 -4 0 -6 0 -3 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 91 84 80 96 56 54 340 333 303 237 267 256 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 150 154 157 157 154 153 152 159 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 147 148 147 151 154 154 151 149 147 150 153 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 54 53 51 51 49 51 50 49 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -14 -18 -16 -18 -27 -11 -15 -4 1 0 -5 -12 200 MB DIV 26 17 5 11 1 -12 0 4 12 6 0 17 27 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 -1 0 2 0 -2 3 2 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 779 680 595 536 499 500 385 204 162 97 16 95 44 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.5 56.6 57.7 58.7 60.9 63.1 65.5 67.9 70.5 73.0 75.3 77.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 46 67 82 84 89 83 108 78 70 93 87 118 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 32. 42. 52. 59. 64. 69. 72. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 09/16/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 09/16/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)