* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 40 41 43 46 51 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 40 41 43 46 51 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 41 43 46 50 55 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 20 18 17 12 11 15 8 11 12 12 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 3 5 2 9 3 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 84 83 81 91 107 129 143 145 154 129 133 113 125 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.4 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 132 132 130 124 126 128 127 128 131 135 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 132 131 128 120 122 125 125 127 129 134 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 61 59 57 55 49 45 43 40 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 55 46 32 21 1 -2 0 3 1 7 6 14 200 MB DIV -13 -21 -29 -32 -42 -45 -38 -60 -40 -26 -17 -32 -17 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -6 -6 -5 -9 -4 -1 0 4 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1036 1147 1262 1378 1498 1750 1877 1741 1506 1272 1072 905 781 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.5 12.9 12.0 11.1 10.5 10.1 10.0 LONG(DEG W) 26.5 27.7 28.9 30.1 31.3 33.7 35.9 38.1 40.1 42.1 44.0 45.8 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 5 3 3 7 23 22 15 22 30 30 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 21. 26. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/07/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)