* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 05/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 38 39 39 37 35 32 28 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 37 38 39 39 37 35 32 28 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 32 32 33 35 38 41 43 44 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 48 49 39 40 39 34 29 31 43 51 68 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 3 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 266 266 252 247 243 234 232 236 245 249 247 249 249 SST (C) 20.5 20.2 20.0 19.6 18.9 17.4 16.5 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.4 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 81 83 81 80 77 72 69 67 66 67 69 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 74 77 75 74 71 67 64 62 61 62 64 69 70 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.3 -55.2 -55.6 -55.2 -54.5 -55.0 -54.7 -55.2 -56.0 -55.6 -53.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 35 35 33 34 39 44 49 55 52 43 43 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 124 146 154 153 154 127 130 92 49 5 20 46 94 200 MB DIV -25 -1 20 24 20 35 24 20 0 -13 1 5 8 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -1 5 3 1 -14 -17 -22 -26 -21 -23 LAND (KM) 1964 1778 1594 1555 1522 1392 1344 1277 1280 1304 1275 1018 500 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.2 33.4 34.7 35.9 38.2 39.9 40.9 40.8 40.3 39.8 39.5 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 33.2 30.9 28.6 27.4 26.1 25.2 24.8 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.0 21.0 14.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 19 16 16 14 10 7 3 2 3 7 18 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -8. -14. -19. -24. -30. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 27. 28. 25. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. -14. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 05/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.8/ -1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 05/14/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED