* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 05/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 43 41 38 36 33 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 43 41 38 36 33 31 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 43 44 46 49 53 55 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 37 45 45 31 37 35 39 39 41 44 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 2 0 -1 2 1 0 1 7 11 SHEAR DIR 278 275 269 268 259 261 244 248 249 254 237 235 233 SST (C) 19.8 20.0 20.3 19.8 19.4 18.2 16.6 15.6 14.6 14.1 13.6 13.0 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 76 77 80 81 80 76 72 69 68 69 70 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 68 70 73 76 74 71 68 65 64 66 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.3 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -55.2 -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 44 39 36 38 35 41 43 49 52 46 40 47 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 9 11 10 8 6 6 5 4 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 101 113 133 151 150 151 116 112 89 84 72 141 118 200 MB DIV -10 -11 -26 -7 16 14 39 34 26 14 22 24 27 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -5 -6 -2 -6 0 -18 -52 -57 -62 -29 -6 LAND (KM) 2071 2012 1951 1769 1590 1468 1258 1132 952 732 324 70 105 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 33.5 33.0 33.3 33.5 35.9 38.5 40.6 42.2 42.9 43.1 44.3 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.9 33.5 33.0 30.8 28.5 25.4 23.7 22.4 20.7 18.1 13.1 7.0 3.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 11 19 17 16 13 11 10 14 20 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -14. -18. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 19. 23. 26. 27. 24. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -10. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 05/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.5/ -0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 05/14/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED