* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 09/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 45 50 52 53 53 50 48 47 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 45 50 52 53 53 50 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 46 50 52 53 52 51 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 6 9 9 10 14 17 18 20 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 11 9 6 2 1 5 3 4 6 5 0 SHEAR DIR 81 80 122 165 173 237 245 242 258 245 248 241 251 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 143 145 145 139 133 130 133 132 130 129 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 142 144 145 140 133 129 130 128 125 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 62 58 56 52 50 52 53 52 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 32 33 34 31 29 17 5 -3 -19 -19 -29 200 MB DIV 36 21 10 -4 -7 -7 -2 6 15 27 -11 -4 -26 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -2 -1 2 -3 -8 -8 -6 -1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 819 926 1036 1158 1281 1566 1870 1850 1663 1525 1405 1302 1214 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 12 14 14 13 13 12 12 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 7 7 8 14 18 16 12 14 17 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 22. 23. 23. 20. 18. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 09/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 09/05/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)