* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 10/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 33 31 29 28 27 25 23 22 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 33 31 29 28 27 25 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 32 31 29 27 26 25 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 20 25 26 25 27 27 25 37 37 38 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 0 4 1 6 0 -4 -7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 261 256 253 261 264 240 250 227 233 218 242 265 295 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 124 124 125 125 127 131 134 136 132 127 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 113 112 113 115 118 123 123 122 119 118 115 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.6 -56.0 -56.0 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 63 62 64 68 71 69 61 53 47 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -4 2 4 11 39 36 15 -9 -8 -18 -44 -78 200 MB DIV 38 26 19 25 25 31 19 52 24 42 22 -34 -44 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 3 6 4 10 4 -15 -19 LAND (KM) 1580 1603 1626 1651 1676 1788 1956 2210 2372 2308 2137 1717 1354 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.4 17.3 18.8 21.2 23.7 26.1 27.5 26.9 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.5 42.0 41.4 40.7 40.0 39.2 37.2 33.0 29.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 7 10 13 12 11 14 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 28 29 30 28 29 26 25 19 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 10/14/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 10/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 10/14/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)