* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 10/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 37 39 42 42 42 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 37 39 42 42 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 31 35 38 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 23 21 17 15 10 9 8 10 17 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -4 -7 -5 -4 -3 1 3 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 221 213 217 221 216 224 231 212 279 257 274 246 253 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 137 137 137 134 132 132 133 132 134 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 131 131 131 127 123 122 122 121 123 123 124 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 65 63 62 59 58 53 51 48 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 55 48 48 47 33 37 32 42 43 45 34 200 MB DIV 58 55 59 38 39 39 23 31 9 -1 -2 -11 10 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1928 2001 1951 1895 1843 1749 1684 1619 1551 1482 1428 1371 1337 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.4 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.1 36.9 37.7 38.5 40.2 41.6 42.7 43.7 44.6 45.3 46.1 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 13 22 25 24 19 22 28 27 23 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 17. 17. 17. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 10/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 10/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 10/11/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)