* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 39 50 58 63 69 71 73 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 39 50 58 63 69 71 73 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 46 51 55 59 63 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 5 8 11 15 17 17 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 4 6 7 5 0 -3 -5 -5 1 3 SHEAR DIR 87 75 90 105 122 184 149 191 215 229 231 232 238 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.1 26.3 25.9 25.9 26.4 27.1 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 129 130 133 127 119 115 115 120 128 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 130 131 134 126 116 111 111 115 124 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 72 71 67 64 59 55 52 51 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 16 20 21 20 21 22 23 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 120 107 95 85 86 73 73 94 85 75 76 76 74 200 MB DIV 31 49 59 52 69 72 61 28 16 4 8 0 11 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 5 8 6 3 5 6 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 505 573 666 761 859 1106 1413 1747 2085 2120 1927 1786 1542 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.8 11.6 12.4 13.2 14.9 16.4 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 20.8 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 27.8 30.6 33.6 36.8 40.0 43.6 47.1 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 6 2 2 5 5 0 4 7 14 16 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 33. 38. 44. 46. 48. 47. 49. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/08/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/08/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED