* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 09/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 41 51 59 67 71 72 71 68 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 41 51 59 67 71 72 71 68 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 41 50 61 69 72 71 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 19 14 13 7 5 6 8 14 19 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 -1 0 -1 2 1 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 64 61 59 53 51 51 334 308 266 270 249 252 254 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 131 131 130 128 129 124 118 116 114 116 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 131 132 130 127 126 120 113 110 108 110 114 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 73 74 74 70 64 61 60 56 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 127 133 129 116 100 82 76 68 77 70 63 55 47 200 MB DIV 74 79 50 31 56 56 69 45 51 57 47 28 30 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 -5 0 5 3 10 7 6 LAND (KM) 296 319 334 386 474 670 893 1128 1392 1657 1932 2187 2087 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.5 12.9 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 17.1 18.1 19.0 20.1 21.1 23.4 25.8 28.0 30.4 32.8 35.3 38.0 40.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 6 5 1 3 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 26. 34. 42. 46. 47. 46. 43. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 09/07/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 09/07/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED