* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 42 48 54 62 65 69 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 42 48 54 62 65 69 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 32 36 40 45 51 56 60 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 12 15 7 10 12 13 12 14 11 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 -5 -5 -5 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 332 340 329 341 8 14 354 351 330 315 299 262 248 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.8 26.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 125 125 126 125 122 118 116 120 124 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 104 104 103 104 105 103 99 96 101 106 92 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 10 10 12 11 14 12 12 8 8 4 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 55 50 52 50 51 56 57 55 53 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 9 8 10 10 10 11 14 15 18 24 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -35 -19 -16 -35 -25 -49 -27 -42 -4 -15 31 26 200 MB DIV 1 -6 0 -1 9 17 10 30 16 43 17 66 60 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 10 15 14 2 LAND (KM) 255 222 195 171 146 117 140 185 162 105 127 94 126 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 2 4 5 5 4 6 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 20 20 20 17 16 9 3 6 12 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 29. 37. 40. 44. 48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/30/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/30/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED