* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 34 38 43 46 48 49 50 53 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 28 34 38 43 46 48 49 50 53 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 35 39 43 47 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 9 12 9 16 10 14 14 12 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -6 -4 -4 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 -6 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 341 327 332 310 332 347 358 24 16 30 23 55 303 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 123 123 122 122 123 122 121 119 117 120 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 101 102 102 101 100 102 101 100 98 98 102 101 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.8 -55.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.1 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 9 9 11 10 13 11 13 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 55 58 54 58 58 60 62 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -66 -48 -51 -51 -18 -47 -29 -56 -37 -49 -26 -24 200 MB DIV -19 -15 -14 -2 -5 -3 0 24 8 13 22 51 16 700-850 TADV 1 -6 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -3 5 -12 LAND (KM) 335 332 316 293 274 243 222 225 214 192 148 101 32 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.8 30.3 31.0 31.7 32.9 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.8 77.9 78.2 78.5 78.8 79.1 79.3 79.0 78.3 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 24 24 24 25 27 29 30 29 11 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/29/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/29/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)