* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 09/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 54 69 82 94 100 103 103 99 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 54 69 82 94 100 103 103 99 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 47 59 73 85 90 87 81 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 12 12 11 4 4 4 2 11 7 6 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 -3 -4 -6 -2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 67 49 53 49 45 83 21 25 330 210 181 151 266 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 142 144 144 140 137 131 125 120 116 113 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 137 140 141 137 132 123 116 110 107 104 102 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -51.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 82 80 78 76 72 70 71 67 58 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 16 19 22 25 28 31 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 68 78 84 106 109 122 119 135 136 141 122 200 MB DIV 18 26 40 41 50 84 84 103 101 93 118 94 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 7 8 14 LAND (KM) 172 239 292 370 460 698 945 1150 1303 1421 1520 1565 1647 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 11 12 10 8 7 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 9 8 8 12 12 6 3 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 29. 44. 57. 69. 75. 78. 78. 74. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 09/08/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 09/08/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)