* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 08/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 30 27 25 22 18 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 30 27 25 22 18 17 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 21 22 27 30 26 42 43 53 70 71 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 4 5 2 0 1 6 6 -2 -8 -9 N/A SHEAR DIR 22 9 16 358 6 344 314 269 241 226 217 221 N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.7 26.9 25.3 22.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 128 128 130 131 129 131 134 125 109 89 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 110 110 112 113 111 112 114 106 94 79 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.9 -53.8 -54.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 9 10 8 8 5 4 3 4 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 54 61 61 50 40 34 36 33 36 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -39 -75 -81 -55 -27 29 47 39 39 28 8 N/A 200 MB DIV -38 0 -3 -32 -9 5 16 23 31 17 37 11 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 -7 -1 7 -1 21 -90 -30 -32 -25 -29 N/A LAND (KM) 90 114 159 228 230 202 218 388 504 506 410 350 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 26 23 24 24 24 12 7 12 12 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 0. -7. -15. -23. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -7. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED