* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 08/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 39 38 37 36 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 39 38 37 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 20 22 28 25 24 30 48 51 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 4 2 -1 1 7 10 6 4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 2 24 11 8 2 349 330 273 238 202 199 217 217 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.2 27.6 28.0 27.7 26.6 25.3 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 129 128 127 132 128 134 140 135 122 110 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 112 111 111 110 114 112 118 122 117 105 94 74 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -53.5 -53.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -53.3 -53.8 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 10 9 11 8 8 5 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 50 54 61 60 48 42 42 45 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -19 -32 -71 -74 -48 -8 32 67 85 57 25 14 200 MB DIV -32 -31 -27 -30 -46 17 19 46 49 55 61 28 22 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 -4 0 13 -5 -19 -29 -47 -27 -22 -25 LAND (KM) 67 82 84 158 208 209 185 401 620 609 611 577 385 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 11 15 18 18 18 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 33 26 19 21 23 15 21 7 34 11 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -2. -8. -14. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)