* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 08/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 36 39 41 44 48 53 54 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 36 39 41 44 48 53 54 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 37 39 44 50 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 12 11 24 20 23 10 7 16 36 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 -3 1 -8 SHEAR DIR 31 24 27 43 13 16 19 16 354 275 222 215 211 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 142 135 131 128 134 134 138 143 148 144 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 124 118 113 110 116 116 121 125 131 130 105 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 13 10 11 7 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 56 53 50 54 55 51 48 44 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -36 -38 -30 -38 -88 -80 -48 -39 -19 -12 -3 32 200 MB DIV 29 15 -15 -26 -26 -38 -4 6 13 36 36 55 35 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 2 3 2 9 5 14 -4 -7 0 -26 LAND (KM) 138 92 65 61 93 189 332 406 541 740 989 832 560 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 10 12 14 15 17 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 51 48 41 35 29 25 21 24 12 7 25 20 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 5. 4. 3. 3. 0. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 23. 28. 29. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 08/02/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED