* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 07/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 42 44 47 51 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 42 44 47 51 57 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 32 33 35 39 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 19 22 22 28 24 23 20 15 22 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 -3 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 315 320 344 360 7 14 15 357 16 8 51 31 57 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 153 156 160 161 159 158 155 154 154 158 159 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 136 139 143 144 140 139 137 137 138 143 143 135 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 54 55 51 52 55 56 60 57 54 49 48 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -31 -47 -41 -22 -45 -16 -20 -16 -27 -39 -45 -35 200 MB DIV -15 -26 -18 -15 -3 -5 -4 -12 -18 -20 -13 -11 -3 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -6 -3 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 212 163 123 102 88 132 165 226 237 279 377 413 181 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.9 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.3 80.2 81.1 82.0 83.6 84.8 86.0 87.5 89.2 91.2 93.2 95.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 56 62 67 61 58 54 44 30 33 39 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 26. 32. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 07/30/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 07/30/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 07/30/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED