* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 07/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 48 53 59 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 48 53 59 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 35 40 47 55 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 13 14 23 16 17 14 15 13 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 0 0 3 1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 243 272 303 312 307 329 333 8 3 5 17 19 20 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 137 136 139 143 151 153 157 160 156 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 126 125 124 127 130 135 135 138 140 135 131 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 41 41 43 45 46 47 51 51 56 55 56 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -62 -62 -58 -58 -52 -47 -58 -36 -52 -42 -70 -69 200 MB DIV 31 3 0 0 -10 0 -9 -11 2 0 -26 -30 -25 700-850 TADV -3 3 -4 -5 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 245 202 205 211 211 147 95 34 48 77 73 104 150 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.2 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.5 25.2 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 69.2 70.4 71.5 72.5 74.5 76.5 78.2 79.5 80.5 81.4 82.4 83.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 52 50 45 40 26 34 11 35 65 34 36 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 23. 28. 34. 39. 40. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 07/30/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 07/30/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 07/30/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)