* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 07/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 38 41 47 50 54 60 65 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 38 41 47 50 54 60 65 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 36 41 47 54 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 12 13 16 20 14 24 18 21 15 17 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 4 -1 -2 1 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 234 244 246 269 296 297 325 329 358 357 351 352 15 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 137 136 137 137 139 142 148 152 157 160 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 127 125 125 125 127 128 132 135 138 140 135 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 38 38 40 40 41 44 44 47 49 54 53 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -60 -59 -68 -69 -61 -63 -59 -69 -52 -60 -61 -90 200 MB DIV 2 16 19 6 -8 -10 -12 -7 -6 3 0 -3 -35 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -3 0 -3 0 -3 1 0 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 263 283 265 223 219 228 167 126 69 84 111 53 104 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.3 22.7 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 66.6 67.8 69.0 70.1 72.1 74.2 76.1 77.9 79.2 80.4 81.4 82.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 32 43 47 18 28 32 37 45 69 33 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 22. 25. 30. 35. 40. 43. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED