* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 07/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 43 45 50 52 57 60 65 69 72 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 43 45 50 52 57 60 65 69 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 39 41 44 47 52 58 66 73 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 17 15 13 15 10 18 11 14 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 202 213 232 243 248 285 286 325 330 355 358 10 24 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 132 132 133 133 134 134 137 138 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 125 123 123 122 121 121 121 123 121 122 120 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 37 38 40 38 40 40 44 44 48 48 52 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -49 -53 -61 -59 -72 -63 -68 -59 -71 -52 -57 -44 200 MB DIV 20 10 -5 -15 -2 -17 -11 -26 -5 -3 -8 -7 -36 700-850 TADV 2 2 -4 -7 -1 -1 0 -1 2 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 452 358 299 294 312 245 255 206 159 97 132 68 -28 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.6 23.0 23.8 24.8 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.4 64.7 66.0 67.2 69.7 71.9 74.0 76.0 77.9 79.2 80.0 80.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 15 16 21 43 16 7 30 50 56 70 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 15. 17. 22. 25. 30. 34. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 07/29/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED