* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL912013 07/28/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 48 52 56 59 62 68 73 77 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 48 52 56 59 62 68 73 70 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 43 46 49 54 61 70 80 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 16 14 14 9 15 9 8 9 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 2 0 1 -4 -1 -3 -4 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 206 202 220 230 241 250 307 302 42 30 76 115 106 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 132 134 133 134 134 135 138 140 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 128 126 124 125 123 123 122 122 123 123 126 126 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 39 39 39 38 38 40 42 45 48 50 54 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -45 -54 -65 -66 -70 -69 -73 -54 -60 -42 -53 -39 200 MB DIV 37 18 17 -2 1 3 11 -18 6 -1 -8 3 -22 700-850 TADV -1 3 0 -4 -6 0 -3 -4 1 1 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 385 291 244 272 260 227 255 171 126 112 122 43 7 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.4 22.8 23.3 24.0 24.8 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.9 65.3 66.6 67.9 70.4 72.8 74.9 77.0 78.7 79.9 80.7 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 16 17 28 45 35 25 42 51 65 65 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 889 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 33. 38. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 DORIAN 07/28/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 DORIAN 07/28/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 DORIAN 07/28/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)