* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 07/28/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 46 51 57 59 64 69 74 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 46 51 57 59 64 69 74 78 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 42 46 51 57 65 74 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 14 13 9 14 9 16 6 14 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -4 -2 1 -1 0 -5 -2 -6 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 243 228 218 225 241 239 282 277 335 340 17 31 26 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 135 135 134 133 134 134 134 136 137 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 130 128 127 125 123 123 122 121 121 119 115 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 14 13 13 12 13 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 40 38 38 39 39 40 40 43 43 46 47 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -27 -33 -41 -46 -54 -60 -57 -62 -55 -69 -49 -48 200 MB DIV 32 24 9 10 -5 3 -16 0 -13 -14 0 3 -13 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 -5 -2 -5 -3 -2 2 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 661 524 398 301 245 260 218 245 196 175 196 102 15 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.1 24.0 25.1 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 60.9 62.3 63.7 65.0 67.6 70.2 72.4 74.6 76.6 78.3 79.4 80.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 23 18 16 24 46 37 26 42 59 67 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 27. 29. 34. 39. 44. 48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 07/28/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912013 INVEST 07/28/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 07/28/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)