* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 06/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 41 41 42 41 37 30 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 41 41 37 36 32 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 30 28 27 26 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 24 25 28 31 38 36 42 47 51 59 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 7 9 5 8 3 0 -4 3 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 272 252 240 253 262 247 237 214 224 231 243 255 268 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 26.5 24.7 24.0 23.1 21.0 18.8 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 120 119 121 125 120 105 101 96 87 81 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 103 101 100 104 111 109 97 92 88 80 76 76 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -54.8 -55.6 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 10 10 11 8 11 7 7 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 45 44 44 48 58 59 57 57 53 54 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 13 16 20 23 22 21 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR 6 29 24 17 37 57 10 -5 -14 -27 -61 -57 -61 200 MB DIV 56 97 69 68 53 37 16 60 24 13 26 27 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -4 -4 3 15 8 0 21 -4 13 9 LAND (KM) 375 403 431 428 422 385 280 -14 52 0 277 409 492 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.8 27.2 29.5 32.2 35.0 37.5 39.5 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.5 89.7 89.6 89.5 88.1 85.8 83.1 80.0 76.4 72.1 66.5 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 4 9 15 18 20 21 23 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 10 11 21 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 9. 7. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 12. 11. 7. 0. -11. -24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 06/05/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 06/05/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED